Red Zone Bets

There`s no much more coveted normal time prize for an NFL group than the No. 1 conference seed and also the first-round bye and house area benefit it includes. The logic follows that this paves the simplest route towards the elusive, and greatest, prize: a Tremendous Bowl championship.

The Atlanta Falcons are likely to place that concept towards the check beginning this Saturday, Jan. 15. They`ll host the Green Bay Packers at 8 p.m. within the Georgia Dome within the initial of two NFC Divisional Spherical playoffs.

Nevertheless, the Falcons will really need to buck some current developments that, at greatest, recommend that they`ll be considered a bad play in opposition to the spread this weekend and, at worst, would make them a coin flip to advance.

More than the final 10 many years groups with relaxation and house area benefit within the divisional spherical with the playoffs have gone just 22-25-1 in opposition to the NFL stage spread. And because 2005 these groups have posted a feeble 12-12 mark straight up and 9-15 ATS. Final year`s rested hosts did go 3-1 SU and ATS, but that arrived just a yr following they went 1-3.

Atlanta earned the house area edge by virtue of the sensational 13-3 normal time. Final yr that led to a dominating 41-13 win by No. 1 seed New Orleans. But two many years in the past the leading seed, Carolina, was stunned 33-13 on its house turf.

But background isn`t precisely an enemy with the Falcons and they`ve some equally extraordinary numbers operating within their favor heading into this one. Matt Ryan is definitely an unreal 20-2 straight up at house in his career. He also tied Dan Marino this yr for probably the most normal time wins to get a quarterback within the initial three many years in his career (33). Atlanta is 21-9 ATS as being a preferred beneath Mike Smith and, obviously, they`re no joke because the conference`s leading seed.

This sport is really a rematch of the thrilling matchup more than Thanksgiving weekend. Atlanta won that sport on its personal turf, 20-17, having a area objective with nine seconds remaining, stymieing a Green Bay comeback attempt.

The Packers superior final week by virtue of their more-dominating-than-the-score-suggests 21-16 win at Philadelphia final week. The Pack brings the No. 9 offense and No. 5 defense within the NFL into this sport – in comparison with the No. 15 and No. 16 models for Atlanta – plus they seem to become playing their greatest football at the proper time.

Green Bay is really a magnificent 19-5 ATS within their final 24 video games as an underdog and this group is really a great deal nearer to getting 14 and even 15 wins than it seems. All six of Green Bay`s losses had been by four factors or much less. Two with the losses had been in overtime and five of them had been around the street. Also, two with the losses arrived with out Aaron Rodgers and three with the six arrived absent from house in opposition to playoff groups.

Whilst a lot with the focus heading into this sport will probably be around the two stud quarterbacks, the important thing to who wins (and addresses) within this contest might be which operating back again has the much better day. James Starks had a breakout efficiency final week for your Packers in Philadelphia with much more than 100 yards. For Atlanta, Michael Turner continues to be a workhorse for three many years and prospects a punishing assault.

An additional crucial matchup will probably be Green Bay`s multifaceted passing assault in opposition to Atlanta`s secondary. I really feel such as the Falcons are just just just a little leaky within their back again four and could be exploited. Nevertheless, so as for that to occur the Packers offensive line, which continues to be stellar at occasions and suspect at other people, will need to safeguard Rodgers from Atlanta`s fearsome pass rush.

This sport also functions two of my preferred, and two of the very best, defensive players in football: defensive finish Kroy Bierman for Atlanta and linebacker Clay Matthews for Green Bay. They`re two of a number of All Pro-caliber defenders on each sidelines and therefore are each really worth viewing.

NFL Spreads: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta opened because the smallest divisional spherical preferred in more than five many years at just -1.0. Nevertheless, which was promptly wager as much as -2.5 as individuals pounded the Falcons. The complete on this sport has also observed substantial movement, sliding right down to its existing state at 43.5 regardless of an open of 45.5.

Packers at Falcons Betting Developments

Packers are 4-1-1 ATS within their final 6 Divisional Playoffs video games.

Packers are 6-2 ATS within their final 8 street video games vs. a group having a successful house document.

Packers are 15-5-1 ATS within their final 21 video games as being a street underdog.

Packers are 19-7-1 ATS within their final 27 video games as an underdog.

Packers are 8-3 ATS within their final 11 video games general.

Packers are 7-3-1 ATS within their final 11 video games on fieldturf.

Packers are 25-12-1 ATS within their final 38 street video games.

Falcons are 7-1 ATS within their final 8 video games general.

Falcons are 6-1 ATS within their final 7 vs. NFC.

Falcons are 10-4 ATS within their final 14 video games as being a house preferred.

Falcons are 7-3 ATS within their final 10 house video games.

Falcons are 7-3 ATS vs. a group having a successful document.

NFL Picks and Predictions: Packers at Falcons

I may have a rated play on this sport so I do not wish to suggestion my hand around the aspect. Nevertheless, I do believe that this sport will go `under` the complete. Green Bay`s defense continues to be playing from its thoughts more than the final two months. In the event you low cost its journey to New England (the Patriots score on everyone), then the Packers have offered up an typical of just 11 factors per sport more than the final nine video games (dating back again to October). Only two groups, the Patriots and these Falcons, have managed 20 factors or much more.

Additional, the Falcons truly are not a "big play" offense. They methodically move the ball up and down the area, counting on the operating sport and brief passes to obtain their factors.

Green Bay is heading to become intelligent sufficient to place Charles Woodson on Roddy White and also to shade assist that way. In the event you consider absent White there`s truly a dearth of large play men on this Atlanta offense. Meanwhile, Atlanta`s defense has offered up much more than 20 factors just one time because mid-November (seven video games) plus they held the Pack in verify within the initial meeting.

I do not believe that this is a superb scenario for your `under` but I do believe that it deserves a powerful appear. I detest to hedge, but I do really feel such as the Packers could break out within this sport. Nevertheless, correct now I am pondering `under` for this one inside a tight, tough fought sport.

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